September 4, 2010

Algorithmically Off a Cliff?

Paul Wilmott, in a recent New York Times editorial, put forth the argument that financial trading by algorithm has gotten so fast that it threatens to bring down the entire system:

“If a fall in the market leads to people selling according to some formula, and if there are enough of these people following the same algorithm, then it will lead to a further fall in the market, and a further wave of selling, and so on — until the Standard & Poor’s 500 index loses over 20 percent of its value in single day: Oct. 19, Black Monday. Dynamic portfolio insurance caused the very thing it was designed to protect against.”

This feels like a head-on assault on analytics. And wouldn’t dialing back the speed and power of the algorithm’s that drive trading require some sort of unilateral disarmament or else no one will want to give up even a sliver of competitive advantage.  The underlying problem, according to Wilmott, is this:

“…the problem with the sudden popularity of high-frequency trading is that it may increasingly destabilize the market. Hedge funds won’t necessarily care whether the increased volatility causes stocks to rise or fall, as long as they can get in and out quickly with a profit. But the rest of the economy will care.”

In the end, however, is the problem with the algorithm or the market? When the repeating rifle and then the fully automatic weapon were invented, could one cry, “Stop, that’s not fair and won’t fit with our strategies and tactics honed over decades of fighting with single shot weapons”? Sorry for the war analogy  but we are talking about Wall Street after all?

What do you think? Should there be speed limits on automated trading? Or should markets adapt to what is possible for the traders? After all, an unsustainable market is in no one’s interest.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • email
  • LinkedIn
  • Ping.fm
  • StumbleUpon
  • Technorati
  • Twitter

About Eric McNulty
Editorial Director Eric J. McNulty most recently served as Managing Director of Conferences for Harvard Business Publishing. In this role he was responsible for the company's global conference and event business. His primary responsibility was editorial development and he oversaw production and marketing of both virtual and in-person programs. Eric has also written for Harvard Business Review, Harvard Management Update, Marketwatch, Strategy & Innovation, the Boston Business Journal, and Worthwhile magazine. He edited Harvard Business Publishing's Innovation Alert e-newsletter for two years and has worked with such thought leaders as Clayton Christensen, Thomas Davenport, Vijay Govindarajan, Gary Hamel, Jeanne Harris, Chan Kim, and Renee Mauborgne through Harvard Business Publishing events. Prior to joining Harvard Business Publishing, Eric was principal and founder of PM Collaborative – a marketing strategy consultancy serving clients such as Infiniti Motor Corporation, Legal Sea Foods, Cybersmith, and others. Previously he served in management and marketing roles at European Travel & Life magazine, Mark Cross, and Bloomingdale's.

Speak Your Mind

*