We’ve all be in positions where we had to make tough calls. When they go right, you are a hero. When they don’t, well…
In case you missed the latest installment of “The Rivalry of the Decade” in the National Football League — the New England Patriots vs. the Indianapolis Colts — let me set the scene: It is closing in on midnight Eastern time. The Patriots are ahead in the fourth quarter and it has been looking like this was going to be a win for them since fairly early in the first half. Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady has outgunned his Colts’ rival, Peyton Manning. It’s fourth down with two yards to go on their own 29 yard line. Make a first down and the game is over. Or punt and count on your defense to stop Manning and the Colts. Here’s how AP described the outcome:
“The Patriots failed on a fourth-and-2 deep in their territory with two minutes to play, giving Peyton Manning a prime opportunity to steal a victory after trailing by 17 points early in the fourth quarter. Manning took advantage, throwing a 1-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne with 13 seconds left to give the Colts a 35-34 win over the Patriots on Sunday night.”
As it became clear that the Patriot’s did not gain a first down, thousands and perhaps millions of New England fans judged the call to go for it by simulataneously shouting, texting, posting, and tweeting, “WTF.” What was Belichick thinking?
Here’s what he might have been thinking according to Brian Burke, an NFL statistical analysis enthusiast, as reported in the New York Times:
“With 2:08 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A conversion on 4th-and-2 would be successful 60 percent of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53 percent of the time from that field position. The total win probability for the 4th-down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP stands for win probability)
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their 34. Teams historically get the TD 30 percent of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount.”
Belichick may be vindicated in the cool light of day but second-guessing the coaches and managers of professional sports teams in Boston is a much-vaunted and loudly voiced pasttime. It is practically a religion. Being right on paper doesn’t often salve the faithful.
What’s your thought? Did you see the game — and what was your reaction to Belichick’s call?
Have you had face the wrath of a CEO, shareholders, or others after making a statistically correct decision that didn’t pan out the way you’d planned?
You can read endless amounts of Brian Burke’s analysis of NFL stats at: http://www.advancednflstats.com/.
About Eric McNulty
Of course, Brian Burke, the NFL statistical analyst enthusiast, is using historical averages for All TEAMS in those situations. If he were to use statistics specifically related to the Patriots and Colts, he might find the expected outcome is different. How well do the Patriots convert on 4th and 2 yards to go? Maybe better, maybe worse. If given the ball at that spot on the field, how often do the Colts score a TD? Perhaps better; I doubt worse.
Statistics can be a useful guide in decision making, but remember that a six foot man can drown in a swimming pool that “on average” is only three feet deep. So you’d have to hope that Belichick was looking at the most pertinent statistics.
You might also argue that expert opinion, such as from other coaches and key players, should also be included in the decision making process, as well as other inputs. But, then again, the decision has to be made in the span of maybe one 60 second timeout. When decision makers are pressed for time that’s usually when they use shortcuts, often relying on prior memorable decisions or small sample outcomes, to decide. And that’s when errors can happen.
I liked Belichick’s decision, but that’s because I’m not adverse to taking a risk in a game, at least this early in the season, and when my job is not on the line.
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